Investigating the uncertainty of atmospheric general circulation models in simulating the future runoff of Abu Al-Abbas Watershed, Khuzestan, Iran
Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
- 1 Department of Nature Engineering, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Mollasani, Iran
- 2 Assist. Professor, Department of Nature Engineering, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Mollasani, Iran
Abstract
One of the most significant challenges in natural ecosystems is climate change, which greatly affects hydrology and the water cycle. This study aimed to examine the uncertainty of general circulation models in simulating runoff in the Abu al-Abbas Watershed in Khuzestan Province. For this purpose, the CMIP6 model scenarios SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 were used, and the minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation variables were simulated using the LARS-WG software., the IHACRES model was used to simulate monthly discharge during the period 1992-2020. The results of evaluating the simulation of climatic data for future periods indicate the good performance of the models used. The simulated climatic data for the future showed that the annual temperature and precipitation would increase by up to 3.5˚C and 93 mm in the most pessimistic scenario and by 1.2 ˚C and 0.9 mm in the most optimistic scenario. The results showed that the CNRM model had the least uncertainty in the SSP126 scenario. Using this model, the monthly runoff for this watershed was simulated for the base period and future periods as 2021-2050 and 2051-2080, runoff is expected to increase by 20 to 25% during the period 2021-2050 and by up to 27% during the period 2051-2080.
Keywords
Subjects
Hydrology
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